A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."